1 min read
Sources:
press and public records, Kevin's account, his own videos
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Short answer
A SurveyUSA poll for the San Diego Union-Tribune, taken August 2 to 4, 2021, showed Kevin leading all replacement candidates at 27%, ahead of Larry Elder at 23%. It listed only seven of the 46 candidates, Kevin was the only Democrat named, and its likely-voter screen excluded recall opponents. SurveyUSA’s CEO later called the figure indefensible. It nonetheless produced national profiles and got Kevin into the televised debate. Other polls had him at 13% (CBS) and about 6% to 8% in aggregates. 12
The poll: 27% (SurveyUSA, August 2 to 4, 2021)
Candidates listed: 7 of 46 (Kevin the only Democrat)
Pollster later: "Indefensible" (SurveyUSA CEO, September 13, 2021)
Other polls: 13%, 6% to 8% (CBS; RCP and FiveThirtyEight aggregates)
The record
SurveyUSA’s August 2 to 4, 2021 poll for the San Diego Union-Tribune put Kevin at 27% and Larry Elder at 23% among replacement candidates. The poll named only seven of the 46 candidates, listed Kevin as the sole Democrat, and screened to likely voters in a way that removed recall opponents, who were mostly Democrats. On September 13, SurveyUSA’s CEO called the 27% indefensible. A late-August CBS poll had Kevin at 13%, ten points behind Elder; polling aggregates through election day had him between 6% and 8%, consistently the top Democrat. 12
What it did
The number earned national profiles, including CNBC’s, and helped qualify him for the August 25 KCRA debate, where he was the only Democrat on stage. Newsom’s campaign dismissed the poll publicly.
Kevin’s account
Kevin’s account
One word for the mood inside the campaign when it dropped: optimistic. I also believe Larry Elder entering the race was a big problem for me. It gave Newsom a way to argue people should not vote for the recall because they might end up with somebody to the right of Trump. That is my read of the race, not a verifiable fact. 3
In his own videos
August 2021, the day it mattered: the SurveyUSA and San Diego Union-Tribune poll had him as the leading challenger. 4
July 2024, looking back: CNBC’s article that he had a good chance of becoming governor was based on the SurveyUSA poll, and he did beat every other replacement candidate outside the top two. 5
Real poll, bad design, and it changed the race anyway. Kevin’s own word for the mood when it dropped: optimistic. 1
Simply put
✅ What it said
➡️ For a few days in August 2021, one poll had Kevin in first place at 27%.
✅ Why it was wrong
➡️ It only named seven candidates and left out the other Democrats. Its own CEO later said the number could not be defended.
✅ Why it mattered
➡️ It got him national coverage and a spot in the TV debate.
➡️ Actual result: 9.6%.
Sources
North Coast Journal, September 13, 2021, "Polling error: how one survey changed the Newsom recall campaign", Open
Company research memo, political activity (CBS late-August 2021 poll 13%; RealClearPolitics 7.8%; FiveThirtyEight 6.1%), Open
Kevin's account, The 27% poll: “One word for the mood inside the campaign when it dropped: optimistic.” Read the excerpt
Kevin on YouTube, "I'm Suing CNN." (2021-08-24), at 0:46: “survey usa and the san diego tribune they did a statewide poll and they found that i was the leading challenger against newsom” Watch from 0:46
Kevin on YouTube, "The Democrat Strategy Exposed | Trump vs Biden." (2024-07-02), at 0:00: “CNBC featured this article, this 29-year-old YouTube millionaire has a good chance of becoming the next California governor, which is based on a poll that survey USA put together” Watch from 0:00
