1 min read
Sources:
press and public records, Kevin's account, his own videos
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Short answer
Larry Elder, a conservative talk-radio host, entered the recall in July 2021 and won the replacement vote with 3,563,867 votes (48.4%); Kevin finished second with 706,778 (9.6%). Elder skipped the debates, as did Newsom; Kevin debated three other Republicans. Kevin’s view is that Elder’s entry hurt him by letting Newsom frame the recall as a choice between Newsom and someone to the right of Trump. Kevin outpolled Elder in San Francisco’s replacement vote by 149. 12
Elder: 3,563,867 (48.4%)
Paffrath: 706,778 (9.6%)
Debates: Kevin yes, Elder no (August 25, 2021 KCRA debate)
The record
Larry Elder entered the race in July 2021 and became the Republican front-runner almost immediately. He won the replacement question with 3,563,867 votes, 48.4%. Kevin was second with 706,778, 9.6%. Neither Elder nor Newsom attended any debate; Kevin debated John Cox, Kevin Faulconer and Kevin Kiley on August 25 and asked them, unsuccessfully, to drop out and endorse him. 1
Kevin’s account
Kevin’s account
I believe Larry Elder entering the race was a big problem for me. It gave Newsom a way to argue people should not vote for the recall because they might end up with somebody to the right of Trump, and I felt sandbagged by that loud Republican competition. That is my read of the race, not a verifiable fact. 2
The one place Kevin won
San Francisco’s replacement vote, by 149 votes, on a question most San Franciscans skipped. That has its own page.
In his own videos
September 2022: almost a million votes, and beat Larry Elder in San Francisco. The certified figure is 706,778. 3
Elder won the replacement vote five to one, and Kevin believes Elder’s entry is what sank the recall. Both lost; Newsom stayed. 12
Simply put
✅ The result
➡️ Elder got about 3.56 million votes. Kevin got about 707,000.
✅ The debate
➡️ Kevin showed up. Elder and Newsom did not.
✅ Kevin's view
➡️ A loud Republican front-runner let Newsom scare Democrats away from the recall.
➡️ His opinion, not a fact.
Sources
Wikipedia, 2021 California gubernatorial recall election (results; Elder and Newsom skipped debates), Open
Kevin's account, The 27% poll: “I also believe Larry Elder entering the race was a big problem for me ... I felt sandbagged by that loud Republican competition.” Read the excerpt
Kevin on YouTube, "Critical Inflation Report - COMPLETE DISASTER" (2022-09-13), at 1:37: “I didn't win obviously but hey you know I think we did really well, we got almost a million votes, we beat Larry Elder in San Francisco” Watch from 1:37
