1 min read
Sources:
Kevin's account
["default","default","lime"]
Short answer
Both, and he credits the timing. He started writing offers in fall 2011 when the consensus was a second housing crash, bought in February 2012, near the bottom, and kept buying through a decade of rising prices and cheap money. That is a favorable period no method can manufacture. The skill part is the wedge: buying distressed houses below market and renovating them, which adds equity in any market and is what the company still does. The honest split is that timing set the base and the method compounded it. 12
Bought: Feb 2012 (near the bottom of the last cycle)
Held through: 2012 to 2021 (rising prices, falling rates)
The method: Wedge deals (below-market fixers, renovated)
Timing
Kevin’s account
In the fall of 2011 everyone was warning about a double-dip recession. I took the opposite view: if everybody is dogging on real estate, now must be the time to buy. I got a deal in February 2012. 1
Southern California prices bottomed around then and rose for a decade while mortgage rates fell. Every house he and Lauren bought from 2012 to 2021 rode that. Calling the bottom was a judgment; the size of the tailwind was luck.
Skill
Kevin’s account
Buy fixer-uppers and generate a target of 20% equity gains after repairs. That cushion protects against fluctuations in real estate values. 2
Buying below market and improving creates equity on day one regardless of where prices go next. That is the part that transfers, and the part the company runs today with no debt so a downturn cannot take it back.
Why it matters now
He says the market is bottoming again as rates peak, and he is buying accordingly. Whether that is 2012 again is the bet; the method is the same either way.
He bought at the bottom on purpose and rode a decade of appreciation; the wedge is what he added on top. Timing he cannot repeat; the method he sells. 12
Simply put
✅ Timing
➡️ He bought in 2012 when everyone was scared. Prices roughly doubled over the next ten years in his market.
✅ Skill
➡️ He buys wrecks below market and fixes them. That works in flat markets too.
✅ Honest answer
➡️ A great decade did most of the lifting. The method decides whether you keep the gains when the decade ends.
Sources
Kevin's account, The $305,000 house: “Everyone was warning about a double-dip recession. I took the opposite view: if everybody is dogging on real estate, now must be the time to buy.” Read the excerpt
Kevin's account, The thesis: “Buy fixer-uppers and generate a target of 20% equity gains after repairs.” Read the excerpt
