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Investing and markets
1 min read
Sources:
Kevin's account, press and public records, his own videos
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Short answer
His stated view in September 2026: the economy still has good time ahead and he is bullish near term, but the next crash, whenever it comes, could be the longest and worst since the Great Depression because the Federal Reserve may be unwilling to provide the money-printing bailout of prior cycles. That is why he refuses debt. He also thinks an AI bust could bring deflation and lower rates. He has been wrong before, publicly: his early-2022 recession call, which he later retracted on timing. All of this is opinion, and he labels it that way. 12
Near term: Bullish (upper 8 on his scale)
Next crash: Could be severe (longest since the Depression, he says)
His hedge: No debt (personally and at the company)
Track record: Wrong in 2022 (admitted on the channel)
His view
Kevin’s account
I am a big fan of buying the dip. I believe real estate is bottoming as we enter an era of peak yields, while the stock market may be in a topping cycle, much like the dot-com bubble, when the Nasdaq 100 fell over 80% while real estate fell at most about 1%. My longer-term worry, and the reason I refuse debt: the next market crash could be the longest and worst since the Great Depression, because the Federal Reserve will likely be unwilling to provide the money-printing bailout function of prior Feds. That is an opinion about the future, not a fact, but it drives every capital decision I make. 1
Kevin’s account
If the AI bubble implodes, I believe AI-led deflation plus a Fed chair who will not use the balance sheet means markets would have to provide accommodative yields, driving rates even lower than before. Again, my view. 1
The record on his calls
In early 2022 he called for a recession and said he was selling rentals, stocks and crypto for cash. He later posted a video acknowledging the thesis was wrong on timing and that he had underestimated consumer resilience. The video is public. 2
How the company reflects it
Reinvest holds its real estate with no mortgage, so that a crash would be a buying opportunity rather than a margin call. That is the strategy the crash view produces, and it is disclosed in the filings as a choice, not a forecast.
In his own videos
May 2023, the retraction of the 2022 call, in a video titled i was wrong. 3
Bullish now, braced for a bad one later, and carrying no debt because of it. He has been wrong before and says so. 12
Simply put
✅ What he expects
➡️ Good times for a while yet.
➡️ Eventually a crash that lasts, because the Fed will not print its way out this time.
➡️ If AI busts, deflation and lower interest rates.
✅ What he does about it
➡️ No borrowing. Own real estate outright so he can borrow cheap after a crash to buy more.
✅ Grain of salt
➡️ He called a recession in early 2022. It did not come. He made a video saying he was wrong.
Sources
Kevin's account, The bear-bull scale: “the next market crash could be the longest and worst since the Great Depression, because the Federal Reserve will likely be unwilling to provide the money-printing bailout function of prior Feds” Read the excerpt
Company research memo (early-2022 recession call; "i was wrong" video), Open
Kevin on YouTube, "i was wrong" (2023-05-01), at 0:46: “I sold my rental properties, I invested in cash, I sold my stocks, I sold my crypto, I sold everything” Watch from 0:46
