1 min read
Sources:
Kevin's account, press and public records, his own videos, Kevin's account (Sept 29, 2026)
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Short answer
As a hedge against a labor-market downturn Kevin expected in 2024. A leveraged long-duration Treasury fund rises sharply when rates fall, which is what a weakening economy would bring, so a slice of the fund bought that protection. His verdict now: a mistake, because the labor market did not roll over, the position lowered returns, and the better hedge would have been for each investor to hold more cash themselves. The fund, he says, did what its documents said it would. The holdings record showing the position’s size and dates is still to be quoted. 12
Why: Labor-market hedge (protection if rates fell in a downturn)
His verdict: A mistake (the labor market did not roll over)
Effect: Lowered returns (by his account)
What is on the record
Kevin’s account
The fund grew well, but I had concerns about the labor market rolling over, so I started hedging. Through much of 2024 the labor market weakened. Heading into late 2024 and early 2025 I moved the fund heavily into cash. Any commentary about hedging was simply about the ETF holding bond or high-cash positions during certain periods. 1
A leveraged long-duration Treasury fund rises sharply when rates fall, which is what a manager expecting a weakening economy would want as a hedge. It is also volatile, which is why the question is fair: it is not a pricing-power stock. 2
What would complete this page
The holdings record. Fund filings show what was held and when; the answer to how large the position was, what it did, and how shareholders were told belongs here as numbers, alongside Kevin’s reasoning in his words.
In his own videos
April 2025, on TMF, a leveraged long-Treasury fund, in his personal account: he does not love it for more than a month or two, and prefers January 2027 TLT calls, which he owns. Context for how he uses rate hedges; the fund’s own holdings record is still the missing piece. 3
From the September 29, 2026 Q&A
Kevin’s account
This, in hindsight, was a mistake, because the labor market did not roll over. If the labor market had continued to deteriorate, this would have performed very well. But the move was wrong, and the better way in hindsight to have hedged would have been for individuals to take larger exposure to cash themselves rather than trying to accomplish that in the fund. So the fund did what it promised it would do. But in hindsight, I think the best way to hedge the stock market is to allocate less to it. Yes, the hedges lowered returns. 4
A hedge for a recession that did not come, and it cost return. He says the fund did what it promised and that the better hedge was less stock, not more Treasuries. 2
Simply put
✅ Why the fund held it
➡️ He thought jobs were about to weaken. When that happens, rates fall and long bonds jump. The fund bought some of that.
✅ What happened
➡️ Jobs held up. The bond bet lost money and dragged the fund's return.
✅ What he learned
➡️ Do not hedge with clever positions. Hedge by owning less stock and more cash.
Sources
Kevin's account, The Pricing Power ETF: “I had concerns about the labor market rolling over, so I started hedging ... Any commentary about "hedging" was simply about the ETF holding bond or high-cash positions during certain periods.” Read the excerpt
etf.com, PP fund page (holdings and closure), Open
Kevin on YouTube, "Course Livestream 4-17-2025" (2025-04-17), at 7:34: “would you still bet in TMF? I don't love TMF for anything more than one or two months of time. I think I would bet on January 2027 TLT calls. I do own January 27 TLT calls.” Watch from 7:34
Kevin's account (Sept 29, 2026), Questions 29 and 32, the hedge Read the excerpt
