The rule

Kevin’s account

The best way to hedge is not to try to time short positions with options or shorts; you are paying interest. The best strategy is simply to allocate appropriately. If you think the stock market is getting bubbly but still has some upside, you might be willing to allocate to ten-year positions you are willing to hold no matter what, and that is it. Then the rest of your capital goes into real estate, long-term bonds, cash or gold. Allocating to a diversified, low-build real estate position with a large cash position is an opportunistic hedge that does not cost interest, just like paying off debt does not cost interest. 1

The lesson it came from

The Pricing Power ETF hedged a 2024 labor-market scare with a leveraged Treasury position; the scare passed and the hedge cost return. His verdict on that page is the origin of this rule: the fund should have held less stock, or investors more cash, rather than a clever position.

What he does trade

Kevin’s account

Kevin often sells puts during periods of elevated volatility to collect premium or to back into long-term positions at a lower price. Those are bullish sold puts. Kevin does not short companies. 2

A sold put is a promise to buy a stock at a set price if it falls there, paid for up front. It is a way of getting paid to wait for a lower entry, and it is bullish; it loses if the stock collapses far below the strike.

Where the clock stands

Kevin’s account

As of the end of September 2026, Kevin believes the stock-market party is at about 10 p.m. There is still some euphoria ahead, but it might get rowdy soon afterwards. 1

The company is the position: $63 million of unmortgaged real estate and $16.3 million of liquid assets, about 85% of it cash, against a small equity book. 3

A note

This page describes what Kevin says he does with his own money. It is not a recommendation for anyone else’s.